MEXICO CITY : The World Cup filled stadiums and attracted thousands of visitors to Mexico, but economists say the tournament has done little to change the outlook for an economy constrained by weak investment and uncertainty over the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Mexico hosted 13 of the tournament’s 104 matches across the three co-host nations, but the event fell short of government expectations that it would provide a significant boost to tourism and economic growth after gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter.
“The World Cup will not structurally change the trajectory of the Mexican economy,” Humberto Calzada, chief economist at Rankia, told Reuters.
He said the tournament provided only a temporary lift to an economy the government expects to grow between 1.8% and 2.8% this year, while private-sector analysts forecast growth of about 1.1%.
The economic benefits were concentrated in host cities rather than spread across the country.
Banorte lowered its estimate of the tournament’s contribution to gross domestic product to between 0.4% and 0.5%, down from an earlier forecast of as much as 0.62%.
Banamex estimated the total economic impact at around $2 billion, equivalent to roughly 0.1% of GDP and less than half the $5.6 billion Mexico received in remittances in May alone.
Deloitte projected the tournament generated about 100,000 temporary jobs, 10% fewer than previously expected.
Meanwhile, BBVA’s household consumption indicator showed spending declined 0.2% month-on-month in June, with hotel spending down 10.5% and restaurant spending falling 4.9%, despite a 16.5% increase in entertainment expenditure.
The gains also varied across the three host cities.
The Mexican Restaurant Association said about half of its member establishments recorded weaker-than-normal business, citing low hotel occupancy and protests in Mexico City.
Air travel data also painted a mixed picture, with passenger traffic rising slightly in Guadalajara and Monterrey while declining at Mexico City’s main airport.
Economists said the country’s growth prospects remain tied more closely to trade and investment than to the short-term effects of the World Cup.
With businesses delaying investment ahead of the USMCA review and the economy shrinking 0.6% in the first quarter, the International Monetary Fund recently cut its 2026 growth forecast for Mexico to 1.2% from 1.6%.
